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Ebola Outbreak


JamesSavik

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What's keeping me up till 3am?

 

 

I know too much.

 

 

I did a job back in the old days and I learned a lot more about biological warfare than any sane person wants to know.

 

 

Every serious biowarfare program in the world has looked at the viruses that cause hemorrhagic fevers. There are some very scary ones but Ebola is the one that has gotten the most press coverage and even exposure in popular culture.

 

 

Ebola starred in the big Dustin Hoffman thriller
OutBreak
and was key to the plot of Tom Clancey's
Executive Orders
. I can tell you that it a
no shit full blown nightmare
.

 

 

Nothing on earth kills like Ebola. It hits you like a hurricane. You get so sick, so fast that there is a very limited window of time for you to walk around spreading it. Once you get sick with it, you are down and too sick to do anything.

Ebola-virus-009_zps7e016a8b.jpg CDC

 

 

Now the WHO (World Health Org) thinks that the outbreak in Africa may kill upwards of a 1.5 million people. Holy shit.

 

 

I have had my doubts about the way this outbreak has turned out. It's not easy to pass Ebola person to person. It takes bodily fluids. In past outbreaks people got so sick, so fast that the outbreaks burned out relatively quickly. I have to wonder- is someone experimenting with using it as a bioweapon? The current outbreak is so atypical of past outbreaks, one has to wonder.

 

 

Bio warfare has been going on for a very long time. In the dark ages plague victims would be thrown into cities by catapult to break sieges. Smallpox infected blankets were given to indians by British soldiers in the French and Indian Wars. China still has outbreaks from bioweapons the Japanese used against them in WWII.

 

 

It wouldn't take a Manhattan Project type effort to develop a bioweapon and Ebola is so nasty to start with, it doesn't need much in the way of weaponization. If someone is playing games, field testing this bug and getting their act together for a major attack somewhere in the world, it's time to build a bunker.

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you ask a fair question, but isn't it also true to say that Ebola mutates in humans at a prodigious rate, and one of the reasons that it died out so fast in previous outbreaks is that it became genetically unstable?

 

It's not particularly hard to imagine a mutation that is more resilient than normal (the latest outbreak is), and that doesn't mutate in the same way.

 

If someone were trying to weoponise Ebola, they would concentrate on finding ways to make it spread through cough, sneezes and the moisture from breathing.

 

I think the biggest thing here was the slow response to an outbreak that hit a city (as opposed to the relatively smaller settlements that usually get hit). Poor response, coupled with poor readiness and education, has made this outbreak massively more severe than it needs to be.

 

The WHO is saying that to contain the virus, they need 5000 healthy people and 4000 beds, along with the medicines and money to keep it all running. They don't even have a quarter of what they need, and the countries involved are making problems worse with their lack of coordination with each other, and their porous border controls.

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All you need to bring this world to destruction is to give some stupid people some intelligence.  In this case, some ebola.

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"It's not easy to pass Ebola person to person."

 

Yeah, that's pretty much what my brother was told by the UK Foreign Office back in August before he went to Liberia but the reality seems different as these recent posts on a health site point out:

 

I would like to point to the CDC transmission risk assessment for ebola (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/case-definition.html). Examples:

High risk: Direct skin contact with .. blood or body fluids [and that includes vomit and saliva, possibly sweat also]

Low risk:  having direct brief contact (e.g., shaking hands) with an EVD patient.

To me that sounds like transmission in normal life is very real.

The rate of infection in health care workers is unprecedented (more than 240 cases in health care workers compared to about 1500 in non health care workers, source: WHO). I am sure these health care workers used everything available to them to protect themselves. Personally I do not know of any other dangerous disease that has such a high rate of transmission from patient to caregiver (and I have great respect for the people doing this difficult job).

The case count of the current outbreak shows exponential growth with a doubling period of 34.8 days (Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1259657)

Taken together these are all hallmarks of a highly contagious disease that is spreading aggressively.

Here are some scenarios to consider:

Saliva-- Ebola is transmitted through saliva. A cough or sneeze produces an aerosol of droplets. Wouldn't that be considered a body fluids transfer? Supposedly aerosols from a cough or sneeze can be transmitted up to 6 feet.

A good open mouth sneeze will expel a lot of saliva. If a person sneezes into his/her hand, then handles a door knob, etc. Wouldn't that transmit the virus?

Sweat—Ebola is transmitted through sweat. A sweaty hand that holds onto a railing or door knob could easily be picked up by the next person in line. That could be followed by the hand-to-face routine that occurs frequently in people. Rubbing the eyes, etc.

Snot—Wouldn't Ebola be in snot also? Someone who wipes his nose with his/her hand and then touches a door knob, etc.

I don’t think these are unrealistic scenarios.  

 

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No kiss, no hug, use anti-antiperspirant, wears mask, burn all your snot wipes, use sanitizer wipes after bench press, and always use ass-protector on toilet seat.  See..., very low risk....  /sarcasm.

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