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Why can't we make finance simpler?


I just read this and it made me think about finance and investment in general

 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/10/news/companies/jp-morgan-losses/index.htm?iid=Lead

 

I don't like the idea of credit swaps, nor derivatives as I can't see any practical or "real" value in them, except as a complex vehicles that simply inflate the prices of what they hold.

 

Maybe, it's strange coming from an accountant, or not if you know the blood feud between the disciplines, but why can't finance be simple securities backed by realizable values?

 

A simple example from just the stock market just for layman reference, if my company is worth $1 billion, I have revenues of $200 million dollars, earnings of $100 million dollars, and 100 million shares of outstanding stock. Under practical projection, I could value my company at a multiple of say 2-3 times earning value.

 

My company minimum basis is $10 per share or equivalent to current value of my company, with a potential high of $12-13 per share based on profitability.

 

Doesn't that sound reasonable? You still make 20-30% profit and buyers know your are worth that value.

 

Today's stock values averages 22 times earnings on the US S&P, these values are not substantiated outside speculation. Yet, it is how the world lives in its own illusion that we are actually making money out of nothing.

 

This isn't about debt, nor about banking in general, but the principle at which finance is operating, money for money sake without any real values involved.

 

It's like I got a dozen water bottles, filled it with tap water through a purifier filter, then sold it to everyone for $5 a bottle, because it is "pure" water. Seriously, just because the tap water has gone through a simple filter, now it is worth 10 times what it was.

3 Comments


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old bob

Posted

I laughed reading your blog.

Do you really believe that our members are really interested in the stock market?

 

BTW, among my friends, there are many who have listened to the advice of their bankerand have lost a lot of money since 2008. The real culprits are the traiders and their search for quick and easy gains.

Nothing like losing money to become cautious !

 

The situation in Europe, with all these countries close to bankruptcy, is the same as that in the U.S..

The advantage of having lost a lot of money, as happened to me years ago, is to have learned caution. Those who have lost a lot of money are now richer in experience.

W_L

Posted

Nah most members will just listen to stock brokers and put everything on red... Umm Apple :P

 

I hope i was witty with my tap water example, ever tried desani water from coke cola company. :P

 

It is sad that modern finance is so unrealistic and holds so little value except to commission fees on sales.

MikeL

Posted

...why can't finance be simple securities backed by realizable values?

 

Because folks like J P Morgan like to put everything on red. Providing value in services to your clients produces insufficient fees.

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