Hurricane forcasts

[C James]

Seasonal hurricane forecasting is a somewhat arcane science. NOAA's seasonal outlook is calling for 8-14 hurricanes, and an above-average season. Their track record for seasonal forecasts is 25% (they have been wrong 3 out of the last 4 years).

 

However, this year NOAA has some competition. A new approach has been pioneered by Dr. James Hansimian, and when NOAA came out with their seasonal outlook in May, he published his own.

 

NOAA's prediction: 8 to 14 hurricanes in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

 

Dr. Hansimian's prediction, 6 to 8 hurricanes in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

 

So far, we have had one hurricane this season.

 

Dr. Hansimian's range of 6 to 8 is a lot narrower a range than 8 to 14, so it's a much tighter forecast. In spite of that, he's on track to at least come closer than NOAA.

 

Here's a short vid of Dr. Hansimian, his forecast, and methodology.

 

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name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="

type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></object>

 

Hrmm, I can't view videos on this system, but all I'm seeing is code above. Just in case, here's a link to Dr, Hansimian's forecast page, and the video is just below the title bar.

[phana14]

C James!

That is WAY too funny!

And I'm putting my money on the Dr.

[TalonRider]

He probably has a better chance of being right than NOAA does.

[MikeL]

Statistically, weather forecasters are correct about 50% of the time.

[rknapp]

*wonders if this is CJs charming way of dropping hints*

[JamesSavik]

Here's my forecast and its just as good as anyone elses:

 

*rolls dice*

 

There will be lucky 7 hurricanes this year!

 

Look out Carolina and Georgia. Your numbers up.