20 reasons why no one wants to win in November
Does it seem like no one wants to win in November? There may be something to that.
The United States faces a perfect economic storm which has the potential to cause economic problems the likes of which haven't been seen since the 1930's. These twenty domestic and foreign policy problems will give the new resident of the White House many sleepless nights.
Item 1: 100/barrel oil- The US economy is based on cheap oil and can not sustain 100/barrel oil prices without causing inflation or a devaluation of the dollar. Thanks to our popularity in the oil producing countries of the world, oil prices are unlikely to go anywhere but up in the foreseeable future.
Item 2: Iraq & Afghanistan- The occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is a very expensive undertaking which wears out tanks, helicopters and troops. It also creates difficulties in keeping the US military ready to respond to a crisis at a moments notice and an acute manpower shortage. These open-ended military operations are black holes which absorb as much money as the federal government has and adds greatly to the budget deficit.
Item 3: sub-prime mortgage financial crisis- Is exploding in the face of the lending industry and causing defaults, repossessions, foreclosures and bankruptcies all over the country. It is also causing real estate prices in some markets to plummet which is causing erosion in local tax bases. As of Jan 2008 Banks have posted ~130 Billion in losses and bankruptcies of industry heavyweights Ameriquest, AHM, New Century Financial and a half dozen more.
Item 4: War on Terror- Unlike the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the budget for the War on Terror is black. No one knows how much is being spent on proxy wars and mercenaries in the Third World.
Item 5: Service Economy- the US has moved from a manufacturing economy to an service economy. As a result, the US manufacturing sector has shrunk and a number a strategically important items (electronics, equipment) can only be acquired from abroad. If Taiwan collapsed, the US Navy would have to stop using AEGIS radars because key components are manufactured there.
Item 6: The Rise of China- As an economic entity, China is the 1000 pound gorilla. With near limitless manpower, new and modern factories China's star is rising. Not only is China a production power. It has a new and huge middle class. While still communist in name, China is in fact a capitalist enterprise with government support and involvement in key industries.
Item 7: Pakistani Polka- Will Pakistan fall and be taken over by Muslim extremist or will the military stay in power. The stakes are high: to the winner goes the custody of the Islamic bomb.
Item 8: Chavez & Crew- Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has made a great deal of political hay in South America by twisting the tail of the United States. With billions of dollars of oil revenue, Chavez has built himself a powerful military, political comfort at home and influence abroad. How will he use his new found power?
Item 9: Putin's New Cold War- America bashing has always been popular in Russia and Putin has decided to jump on the bandwagon after working closely with the US and President Bush early in his term. Is this for domestic consumption or does it indicate a more fundamental change in Russia's foreign policy?
Item 10: Relations With Old Europe- For many years the United States could count on Europe as some of its strongest allies. Now those same governments view the US with suspicion and fear and have large and vocal Anti-American political groups. How will this play out and what will it mean over the next decade?
Item 11: Arab & Israeli Animosity- Simmering tensions in the Middle East can boil over at any time. Although there hasn't been a full scale Arab-Israeli War since the 70s, there were large scale engagements between Israeli-Hezbollah last summer. Anytime tensions blow up here, oil prices go up and the world holds its breath.
Item 12: Iran & Hezbollah- It seems probable that Iran has its hands inside Iraq. They are well known to operate through proxies like Hezbollah. Although it seems improbable now that Iran is a nuclear power, Iran is still a large, powerful and rich adversary that appears to be remarkably well led and trained (in comparison to their Arab neighbors). Will Iran force a confrontation or, God forbid, a war in Iraq or the Gulf?
Item 13: Africa- Always a humanitarian crisis, the US has aways managed to stay out of Africa with the sorry exception of Somalia. Will the US continue to stay out or will a Darfor or Rwandan type crisis draw us in?
Item 14: Immigration- After 9/11 and the creation of the Office of Homeland Security, the US is still loosing the battle against illegal immigration and neither party appears to have the political will to address the problem.
Item 15: Terrorism- The US has not been hit by terrorists since 9/11 however, the current administration has spared no opportunity to enrage practical every govt, political party, religious group and cub scout troop in the world. How long can we keep it up and what will be the consequences next time?
Item 16: North Korea- NK's stock as a bad actor has fallen since they did an underground nuclear test which experts the world over judged to be a "fizzle". However- North Korea still stands as a power threat to our allies, South Korea and Japan. Will Kim Jong-Il continue to capitalize on tensions and events in other parts of the world? Most likely, however, her ability to really harm South Korea drops every year as NK's technology ages and South Korea's advances.
Item 17: Battle Fatigue- the US military has been conducting operations non-stop since... before I can even remember. This has put a critical strain on the military: their tanks, ships, planes and even people are just plain wearing out. Unless billions are put in the pipeline, it will soon become difficult to maintain the current operational tempo on the opposite side of the globe.
Item 18: Environment & International Cooperation- the US rejected the Kyoto accords to fight global warming but remains under pressure from friends, allies and many citizens to do something. The new administration is going to have to decide exactly what and what part American businesses will play and how much it will cost them.
Item 19: States on the Skids- In the 80s, Reagen decided to give back to states the responsibility for a number of programs and services. Now many US states are in serious economic trouble that could trigger record hikes in state and local taxes.
Item 20: Infrastructure- the maintenance of the buildings, bridges, sewers, subways which make up the national infrastructure have been handed over to states who can ill afford it. This years collapse of the Mississippi River Bridge in Minnesota is a wake up call that the national infrastructure can not be ignored forever without serious consequences.
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