While Waiting for Chapter 80

[MartyS]

Excerpt from the Prologue;

 

After the charter, Ares dropped the guests off at Nassau on schedule and Rachel filed a route plan to take her directly home. Rachel sailed from Nassau as the last rays of sunset glittered off the calm, azure seas.

 

Six hours later, a fragmentary radio message was heard by the Coast Guard, “... Ares, taking on water... Mayday, Mayday, Mayday, twenty miles northeast of Bimini, Sailing Yacht Ares, taking on water–” The transmission ended abruptly and all hails went unheeded.

 

Rachel Time and Distance

 

Based on a simple time and distance computation whoever made the radio call received by the Coast Guard screwed up big time. According to the above excerpt from the Prologue, Rachel sailed at sunset. (In the last week of May 1997 the sunset was at approximately 19:50 hours in Nassau.)

 

Six hours later the radio call was received. Below is a map showing Nassau and the reported Mayday location.

 

 

The chart below shows the approximate distances between the two locations.

 

 

The distance was approximately 110 Nautical Miles. When you divide that figure by six, the vessel would have had to average over 18 knots per hour.

 

The narrator states the seas were calm. Below is an abridged copy of the Beaufort Scale. This is used to describe wind speed and associated sea conditions. If you examine it you will see there would have been no winds. Whatever vessel Rachel was on would have had to use her engines. Neither the Ares, nor the Atlantis could make that speed using engines only.

 

 

Trevor confirms the reported sea condition in Chapter 7. See the excerpt from that chapter below

 

Chapter 7 excerpt

He climbed up, onto the cockpit awning, and sat down, basking in the sun, just looking at the sea. It was calm, the rage sea of the night before just a memory. ‘According to the Coast Guard, it was like this when the Ares went down, so why...” Trevor thought, getting no closer to the answer.

 

My Comment

 

I guess when Dirk and Rachel planned their little conspiracy somebody goofed. Maybe Murphy’s Law was not taken into consideration. I wonder why the Coast Guard didn’t pick-up on this.

[Red_A]

A small point or two:-

 

The path you show is dangerous as if you look at the charts, there are rocks and shallow 3 feet of water along the track. The more likely path is going east and north of Berry Islands. About 124 nautical miles.

 

The speed of the Aries would be 14 to 15 knots under engine and roughly 20knots under sail in perfect conditions. ie strong winds right direction calm sea etc.

 

Six hours, I would not take that literally ie say 5 to 7 hours. Taking the date into consideration, I do not think that positon would be all that accurate and since Trevor cannot find it may be much nearer Berry islands than thought.

[MartyS]

Hi Red,

 

Sorry you did not understand the purpose of my post. The reason I posted it the way I did, was to address the information written in the Prologue by the Narrator.

 

My personal belief is neither the Ares or the Atlantis was sunk in May 1997. There is no boat, or pieces of either of them for Trevor to find, sitting in Davy Jones’s Locker.. My opinion is that when Dirk and Rachel entered into the conspiracy, part of the scheme was to fake the destruction of the Ares and switch the two boats. I believe that Trevor is in Australia with a Lagoon 55 that at present displays the name Atlantis. I believe the vessel in Carnarvon once bore the name Ares.

 

In Chapter 33 Bridget states that she was in Nassau the night the Mayday was broadcast. She further explained she went to the location described and was one of the first to arrive. She went on to say she found minor debris including a damaged Zodiac. She admits removing the flotsam from the water and putting it in her vessel to conceal the accident site.

 

I apologize for not making myself clear. Red, there was no wind that night. Any vessel would have needed an engine to move through the water expeditiously.

 

I appreciate the information you posted. It makes me believe you are familiar with the location. Your statements are very welcome. You have assisted me. I was attempting to show that neither the Ares nor the Atlantis could have gotten to the location in six hours. The Narrator, did not say five to seven hours, he said six. Your explanation regarding shallow water makes the trip longer. Thank you.

 

BTW. Shortly after Rachel and Dirk purchased the Ares, they had to replace the engines. With the new engines she could make close to 15 knots. There is nothing posted which indicates the engines in the Atlantis were replaced. The Kookaburra, which appears to be a Lagoon 57, is very similar to a Lagoon 55. The best speed Trevor could get out of her was eleven knots.

 

Marty

 

PS Trevor has stated he has driven the Lagoon 55 in Ned’s shipyard up to speeds of 15 knots. This is one of my main reasons for believing the vessel once displayed the name Ares

[C James]

She sailed at sunset, then we get the six hours later narrative, then the message. So, she may have been a little ways offshore, but... in order to come close to the reported area, she would have to have been traveling at at least absolute max power (you're right about the wind) . That's kind of unusual, unless there is a good reason for it; it uses a lot of fuel and is hard on the engines. Superb sleuthing! I'll say that the time and distance issue is not an error on my part (I do make errors, lots of 'em!)

 

It's been shown that many sudden mayday calls are a bit off; in the heat of the moment, the victim might not know exactly where they are, and round the numbers a bit.

 

The posts above are superb, and I truly love them. I however am limited in what I can say, but that limitation applies only to me.

[Benji]

She sailed at sunset, then we get the six hours later narrative, then the message. So, she may have been a little ways offshore, but... in order to come close to the reported area, she would have to have been traveling at at least absolute max power (you're right about the wind) . That's kind of unusual, unless there is a good reason for it; it uses a lot of fuel and is hard on the engines. Superb sleuthing! I'll say that the time and distance issue is not an error on my part (I do make errors, lots of 'em!)

 

It's been shown that many sudden mayday calls are a bit off; in the heat of the moment, the victim might not know exactly where they are, and round the numbers a bit.

 

The posts above are superb, and I truly love them. I however am limited in what I can say, but that limitation applies only to me.

 

................. We already know that the Aries and Rachel are not in Davey's locker in the Bahamas. (Dirks almost misspoke this in chapter 7) So that leaves us with the plausible switch of the boats in Rachel;s departure (although I cannot fathomed the coast guard dropping the time line here) So goat, you need to release the next chapter sooner the a week.

 

Whoops the question thing!!

 

Who is still doing dive tours in the islands off Australia (Julie) and what is her role here?

Edited June 13, 2011 by Benji

[C James]

One issue to bear in mind; we know the actual timeline of the sailing. The coastguard might, or might not.

 

I don't have a chapter to release right now. I am WAY behind, thanks to computer issues, work issues, and a mess of other things. One of them is it's wildfire season here in Arizona, and it's a bad one (one fire alone is pushing half a million acres) so I'm doing some brush and tree clearance around my house (I live in a forest).

 

Chapter 80 is in Emoe's hands, but chapter 81 isn't quite ready to send into beta yet, though I'm going to try to do so tomorrow. That's how far behind I am; I'm normally several ahead.

 

I'll try to get back on track; I'm hoping I'll have more time after mid-week.

[MartyS]

Ahh, CJ,

 

You Silver-tongued Devil,

 

All readers know (or should know) that your capacity to respond here in the Forum is limited. The one thing I like about you is, YOU NEVER GIVE UP. Whether it is in the story or here. You keep trying to lead us into the Land of Smoke and Mirrors. There is no doubt in my mind the following quote from your post is true. However, this is not the case here. IMHO whoever broadcast the Mayday was not, “in the heat of the moment.” No, that transmission was part of a skillfully developed and I will say, well executed plan developed by Dirk and Rachel.

 

It's been shown that many sudden mayday calls are a bit off; in the heat of the moment, the victim might not know exactly where they are, and round the numbers a bit.

That conspiricy stood the test of time for almost ten years. IHMO only five people know the Ares did not sink in May 1997. They are Dirk, Jim, Henry, Frank Tittle and of course Rachel. If she is still alive that is.

 

In Chapter 54 Dirk informs Frank Tittle, that the attorney he had used back in 1997, was no longer alive. I wonder if he was one of the atttorneys on the May 15th Charter. Dirk has been ultra carefull not to discuss the matter with anyone that could extend the Statute of Limitations. It was not until Trevor started his quest, things were moved off the back-burner. One thing does come to mind. Rachel has been legally declared dead. If she informed anyone of the situation would that extend the S.O.L.

 

My gut feeling is no. Whatever identity she has assumed was not part of the conspiracy, or maybe not. Interesting thought. I do not expect any comment from you on my thoughts here.

 

I had spotted the situation regarding the time and distance a while back. I attempted to write a forum post, but was unable to present my deductions clearly in writing. One of the forum members sent me the instructions on how to post pictures, etc. Without the ability to do so, it would have been almost impossible to post my conclusion regarding the dates and this time and distance information.

 

I am going to repost something I had posted a couple of days ago in the Circumnavigation 79 Getting Closer Forum. I am looking forward to see what, if any comments are made by other readers.

 

A thought or two

 

While I was driving into town this morning I had an interesting thought or two. Rachel sailed at approximately 19:50 hours from Nassau. I arrived at this conclusion based on the Narrators description and my research. The Mayday was broadcast approximately six hours later. That would be roughly 01:50 hours the following day. I have no way to determine if Trevor and Dirk consider that to be the night of the 28th or the following day. I guess I need to go to Rachel’s Designated Memorial and read the tombstone erected here.

 

I have also been wondering why the delay of a couple or three days. It is strongly probable that Rachel attempted to do it before the 28th. However, if there were other boats in the area, they might have been able too quickly respond to the scene, after the Mayday. Keep in mind; this was the Memorial Day Weekend. Lots of boats out and about.

We must also keep in mind another fact. Bridget has stated she went to the location from Nassau, after hearing about the Mayday. She admitted finding flotsam and a damaged Zodiac. I have no doubt that she would lie about anything if it were in her interest to do so. Go back and read Chapter 33. IMHO she was telling it like it was. So, if she found the items there, someone had to put them there, and it sure was not Dirk. I had seriously considered a while back, Rachel had dumped them while returning to Nassau to drop off her passengers. That is unlikely with the two or three days separating the two events.

 

CJ, I do not expect you to comment on most of my posting. I would appreciate it if you could tell me, and all of us one thing. Where can someone living in Florida, go to see Rachel’s tombstone. When they do that they can post the information in the forum for me.

 

On a serious note. I really hope that all works out regarding the fires in your home state. It is of some concern in my area, but thank God I am not in a forest location. We get a lot of grass fires here. We also have a well-trained and active volunteer fire department.

Edited June 15, 2011 by MartyS

[MartyS]

Chapter 79 was a very good and interesting chapter. Thank you CJ. The delay in posting Chapter 80 has given me lots of time to ponder and speculate.

 

After reading it several times and giving serious consideration, to the telephone conversation between Trevor, Melody and Ned, a prediction of mine is looking better.

 

Because I believe the Lagoon 55 in Ned’s boatyard once displayed the name Ares, I predicted, Ned would probably discover the hidden compartments on the vessel. Bridget mentioned them in Chapter 33.

 

As I read and re-read the hesitant response by Melody and the way Ned mentioned removing a specific area of the vessel, my first thought, was, “Eureka, Ned found something and notified the authorities!” It all made sense. If whatever Ned found was illicit or at least indicative of wrongdoings he would do so.

 

Let me theorize a little. Ned discovers the hidden compartment or compartments. They probably contain the bill of sale Bridget mentions discovering. This document concerns the Ares not the Atlantis. If the other documents Bridget feared were present, this would no doubt interest any law enforcement agency. What to do?

 

Ned reports his discovery to Officers Greg Fowler and Craig Grundig. Both of them have already had experience with Trevor and concealed compartments. Trevor was clearly warned not to do anything like that again. Then they consider the other side of the coin. Why would Trevor leave something that he should have realized would be found? If the bill of sale was discovered it would be dated. That date would be prior to Trevor’s birth. IMHO they would want some answers to these questions before they started to make any accusations.

 

The officers ask Ned to assist them in their investigation. They suggest he mention the location the hidden compartments were discovered, but say nothing about the finds. They would want to determine Trevor’s reaction to the location. They may have setup a recording of the call. (I have no knowledge of the laws in Australia concerning recording telephone conversations.) They are all set to go, EXCEPT!!!!!

 

The biggest problem I have with jumping up saying, “I was right,” is that nefarious goat. All of my speculation regarding the telephone conversation Trevor had with Ned and Melody could be wishful thinking. CJ just loves to dangle tidbits to lead the reader down the wrong path. I draw your attention to, the Key Lime Pie and the Thanksgiving Dinner. Both of them MIGHT be indications of an American influence in Martin Blake’s life.

 

One thing needs to be kept in mind. Any investigation by Australian Law Enforcement regarding the bill of sale, (if one is found) might effect the Statue of Limitations Dirk is waiting to conclude.

 

Other interesting facts need to be considered. The Kookaburra sailed from Carnarvon on Wednesday, November 22nd. Trevor made this telephone call on Wednesday, November 29th, prior to eating lunch. That was a week later. This was a workday. When Trevor first met Ned, it was on Monday, another workday. There was no Mrs. Ned in the office ready to answer the telephone. Add in Shane’s conversation with Joel about Trev’s failure to check on the progress of repairs. Ned knew how concerned Trev was about his boat. Based on Trev’s, last conversation with him, Ned should have expected the Kookaburra to return in a couple of days. Greg Fowler promised to drop off Trevor’s new cell phone, but didn’t. Apparently nobody in Carnarvon attempted to contact Trevor or Shane during those seven days. Makes me wonder.

[C James]

Ahh, CJ,

 

You Silver-tongued Devil,

 

Who? Me?

 

We must also keep in mind another fact. Bridget has stated she went to the location from Nassau, after hearing about the Mayday. She admitted finding flotsam and a damaged Zodiac. I have no doubt that she would lie about anything if it were in her interest to do so. Go back and read Chapter 33. IMHO she was telling it like it was. So, if she found the items there, someone had to put them there, and it sure was not Dirk. I had seriously considered a while back, Rachel had dumped them while returning to Nassau to drop off her passengers. That is unlikely with the two or three days separating the two events.

I think I mentioned, in the narration, perhaps obliquely, that Bridget was being truthful about that. So, we can rest assured that it's a fact; she did as she said in that case.

 

“Misery loves company,” Bridget replied, with a wry smile. “As for Rachel, I tried to get her to sell, but she wouldn’t. She had her own troubles with the Federal authorities, so I again offered to buy her out, but before that could bear fruit, she died. I was in Nassau that day, and heard about the distress call within the hour. I took my boat out alone, heading for the coordinates. I was one of the first to arrive, and I was hopeful that Ares had survived, at least in part. However, all I found were a few bits of floating debris, including her Zodiac. They were from Ares; I recognized some of them. Some were partially crushed and the Zodiac was torn almost in two. There were also some scorch marks. My guess is that either she was hit by a large ship, or had a bomb aboard. Due to the scorching, I suspect the latter. I removed the debris to avoid leaving a marker for the wreck. I believed my problems were at an end until Trevor Carlson became obsessed with finding the wreck site. I do not know for certain that Arnold had anything hidden aboard, or that it would have survived, but I believe it very likely. I could not take the risk that Trevor would unearth it. That is why I have been keeping watch on him all these years, and made sure that if he found anything, I would be among the first to know.”

 

“A bomb. Interesting. You really do believe that her husband killed her?”

 

“Yes, though I can’t be positive,” Bridget replied, truthfully.

She told Sanchez the truth, though maybe not the whole truth (she knows that if Sanchez caught her lying, he'd kill her). She was heading for the coordinates in the broadcast. She found the debris, and they are as described. She does not say, but this may or may not have been at the exact coordinates, just in the area. She may have been lying by a few miles; she very much fears Sanchez finding what's really on Ares, so she'd be unlikely to give him the exact location. However, regarding finding the debris, and believing Dirk killed Rachel, those are truthful statements. Bridget believes everything she told Sanchez in the quoted text, and though she might have not told the entire truth on the exact coordinates where she found the debris, she did not lie. One thing this proves: Bridget did not kill Rachel.

 

BTW, this might be a bit of a spoiler, but...

Bridget can be not very nice at times.

 

 

 

The biggest problem I have with jumping up saying, “I was right,” is that nefarious goat. All of my speculation regarding the telephone conversation Trevor had with Ned and Melody could be wishful thinking. CJ just loves to dangle tidbits to lead the reader down the wrong path. I draw your attention to, the Key Lime Pie and the Thanksgiving Dinner. Both of them MIGHT be indications of an American influence in Martin Blake’s life.

 

Me? Nefarious?

 

One minor comment; the key lime pie was from Shelly Fowler, not the Blakes.

 

We'll be seeing the whole Carnarvon crew again very soon.

[C James]

Who is still doing dive tours in the islands off Australia (Julie) and what is her role here?

 

Julie is in Tahiti, not Australia. Her role, therefor, is being elsewhere than Australia.

[MartyS]

One minor comment; the key lime pie was from Shelly Fowler, not the Blakes.

 

 

CJ That is correct. However,You Silver-tongued Devil

 

Quote from Chapter 70

 

Martin grinned. “I’ve heard plenty about you; I’ve known Ned Kelly for years, and Greg Fowler for longer still – since our school days.

Then add this about wives swapping receipes,as stated in

 

Quote from Chapter 68

 

“Me as well,” Grundig replied, leaning forward, opening the box and grabbing a slice of pie, which was already on a small foam plate, with a plastic fork by its side. He took a bite, savoring it before adding, “Your missus makes the best pies I’ve ever had, I’ve always loved ‘em. She even had some good news; she’s teaching my Melanie to make them.”

CJ

 

Any comment?

[MartyS]

CJ,

 

Regarding this quote:

 

She told Sanchez the truth, though maybe not the whole truth (she knows that if Sanchez caught her lying, he'd kill her). She was heading for the coordinates in the broadcast. She found the debris, and they are as described. She does not say, but this may or may not have been at the exact coordinates, just in the area. She may have been lying by a few miles; she very much fears Sanchez finding what's really on Ares, so she'd be unlikely to give him the exact location. However, regarding finding the debris, and believing Dirk killed Rachel, those are truthful statements. Bridget believes everything she told Sanchez in the quoted text, and though she might have not told the entire truth on the exact coordinates where she found the debris, she did not lie. One thing this proves: Bridget did not kill Rachel.

Ares best speed according to Trevor in Chapter 69

 

Ares was the same; she had pretty big engines, and I remember Mom having her at fourteen knots under power a couple of times.

Therefore,Ares speed 14 knots times 6 hours equals approximately 84 miles. Trevor also states he has had Atlantis moving at 15 knots, so add 6 to 84 thats 90 miles.

 

The computations I posted said 110 miles as the crow flies. If Red_A is to be believed it is 126 miles.Even using my 110 miles, that is 20 miles and if Red_A is correct 36 miles. That is not a FEW miles.

 

Next horsepower

 

According to these two sites typical horsepower on both the Lagoon 55 and 57 was 96.

 

http://www.multihull-maven.com/Boats/Lagoon_57

 

http://www.multihull-maven.com/Boats/Lagoon_55

 

From Chapter 2 the following quote

 

Trevor grinned and pointed aft. “Two sixty-five horsepower Yanmar diesel engines, one in each hull, with over two hundred gallons of fuel.

 

Difference in horsepower approximately 34 increase horsepower 35%. Other factors effect speed such as hull design, fouling below the waterline, etc.

 

The Ares was equiped with a LORAN navigation system and Bridget keeps her boat up to date. It is hard for me to believe the Bridget goofed, by that large a margin,(18%) on determining the location she found the flotsam. Hell, I think Trevor had a smaller margin of error on his trip to Australia using an astrolabe and a watch.

 

This is a map of LORAN coverage for North America

 

 

 

 

Rachel wanted the flotsam to be found. Why would she have given false information. It was important to prove there had been a sinking. She must have been POed when no debris was reported. Of course, she didn't know about Bridget removing it. With a calm sea and no wind to speak of, it would not have drifted far.

 

IMHO, if Rachel sailed as the Narrator says, and the Ares and Atlantis were swapped (as I believe), Rachel must have been on some other vessel, to arrive at the reported sinking site in six hours. Rachel's Atlantis ( as opposed to Trevor's Atlantis) would have taken a lot longer with 96 HP. Based on Trevors speed trials in Chapter 69 with Kookaburra, I would give Rachel's Atlantis a max speed of 11 knots. So 110 miles divided by 11 knots, 10 hours travel time.

Edited June 16, 2011 by MartyS

[C James]

Then add this about wives swapping receipes,as stated in

 

 

 

Any comment?

 

Yes! I can comment on that: Key lime pies are rumored to be,and actually are, absolutely delicious!

 

CJ,

 

Regarding this quote:

 

 

 

Ares best speed according to Trevor in Chapter 69

 

 

 

Therefore,Ares speed 14 knots times 6 hours equals approximately 84 miles. Trevor also states he has had Atlantis moving at 15 knots, so add 6 to 84 thats 90 miles.

 

The computations I posted said 110 miles as the crow flies. If Red_A is to be believed it is 126 miles.Even using my 110 miles, that is 20 miles and if Red_A is correct 36 miles. That is not a FEW miles.

 

Next horsepower

 

According to these two sites typical horsepower on both the Lagoon 55 and 57 was 96.

 

http://www.multihull-maven.com/Boats/Lagoon_57

 

http://www.multihull-maven.com/Boats/Lagoon_55

 

From Chapter 2 the following quote

 

 

 

Difference in horsepower approximately 34 increase horsepower 35%. Other factors effect speed such as hull design, fouling below the waterline, etc.

 

The Ares was equiped with a LORAN navigation system and Bridget keeps her boat up to date. It is hard for me to believe the Bridget goofed, by that large a margin,(18%) on determining the location she found the flotsam. Hell, I think Trevor had a smaller margin of error on his trip to Australia using an astrolabe and a watch.

 

This is a map of LORAN coverage for North America

 

 

 

 

Rachel wanted the flotsam to be found. Why would she have given false information. It was important to prove there had been a sinking. She must have been POed when no debris was reported. Of course, she didn't know about Bridget removing it. With a calm sea and no wind to speak of, it would not have drifted far.

 

IMHO, if Rachel sailed as the Narrator says, and the Ares and Atlantis were swapped (as I believe), Rachel must have been on some other vessel, to arrive at the reported sinking site in six hours. Rachel's Atlantis ( as opposed to Trevor's Atlantis) would have taken a lot longer with 96 HP. Based on Trevors speed trials in Chapter 69 with Kookaburra, I would give Rachel's Atlantis a max speed of 11 knots. So 110 miles divided by 11 knots, 10 hours travel time.

 

I can comment on some of this, the technical possibilities.

At the time Rachel sailed from Nassau, Ares would have been capable of at least 14 knots, because Trevor was remembering her doing that. Atlantis can do 15 knots, and they have roughly equivalent engines (more powerful than normal for that kind of boat). Doubling the power doesn't double speed (drag increases roughly as a square of the speed, as I recall) so 15 knots is about as much as you can get out of a hullform like Atlantis's without vastly larger engines. So, a low end for Ares max speed; 14 knots. a top end, 15 knots. I'll confirm that's true.

 

Rachel's broadcast said 20 miles. She, as a captain at sea, would mean nautical miles, which means we can use nautical miles (and knots for speed) for all figuring (which makes it easier).

 

Ares had the same draft as Atlantis; just under 4 feet. That makes the passage between the Berry Islands and Andros island (the roughly straight line route) viable. Here's a link to a chart of the area, with depth readings. You might have to zoom in a bit.

 

Red might be right, and he's sure right about one thing; the safest way is north of Berry Island. But I think the direct route south of it is viable as well, for a boat like Ares, with just a few minor adjustments to the course you plotted. As mentioned in the prologue, Rachel was known to push the limits, sometimes too far.

 

So, she sailed from Nassau. It'd take maybe half an hour to be in the open sea. From that point, a direct run to the reported area is almost exactly 100 nautical miles. At 14 knots for 6 hours, that's 84 nautical miles, so she'd be 16 short. But, that's assuming the water was stationary, which is isn't. We have ocean currents to consider. The average current flow in the area is towards the northwest, the direction Bimini is from Nassau.

How fast? It depends on the winds and tides, plus the constricting channels. If you have google earth, look at the pass between Berry island and Andros island; you'll see on the sea floor the signs of the current and the focusing effect of the constriction. On average... it'll be between one and two knots of additional speed (boat speed plus current speed) resulting in an effective 15 to 16 knots over ground. at 16 knots, the best possible speed, that's 96 nautical miles as maximum possible distance. Almost there. Almost.

 

Now, what kind of nav gear was on Ares? Loran, but we don't know the nature of the display. It was 1997 or older.

This, it could have been a simple digital readout, like this, or it could have very well had a digital mapping capability. If the latter, it's a bit like looking at a map. You see where you are. You'd see where the island is. But, at a glance, what you would not likely see is the distance to the island. If all you had time for was a glance, or had just been looking aqt it before disaster struck, you could make a guess, which might be a good guess. Or, it might be off, maybe by 10 or 15%? 15% of 20 is 3. Trevor knows there could be accuracy issues, which is why his search area is a few miles wide, centered on the Estimated position in the radio call.

 

Is there a slight distance discrepancy there? Yes. all I can say is that it is not a case of me forgetting to calculate times and distances. Oh, I've made errors like that before (just ask poor Red, who has caught me more than once) but in this case, I didn't.

[Red_A]

Now I have found a reasonable chart source Chart Link This is a modern chart of the area.

 

Now we can find your position to within 2 metres 6 feet. I was brought up when finding ones position to one mile was very good.

 

Loran in 1996, was very good and could in places like New York City give you a position to 0.1 nmiles. Similarly, the coast of Georgia, you can get 0.1nmile. However, the area we are talking about is on the edge of the coverage. You need access to two pairs of stations (three in total), and in the diagram above you can see, the area is on the edge of three station coverage. There is only one station covering Nassau.

 

Loran sets in general in 1996, gave the position by giving the hyperbolic line numbers eg Blue 14325, Red21000, Green 61550. You then had to look up the position on a chart, to see where these lines cross. Now try to find these lines on the chart link picture. If no mistakes are made, Position fixes in this area can be within 5 miles. Now this did not really effect people because you expected people to be inaccurate, and if somebody said 20miles of a point you look at the chart and assumed they could be miles out. You knew you were in the right placed but assumed that they could be wrong

 

Now if you look at the chart link, you can see that between Nassau and North Bimini, there is a direct path "Northeast Channel" and if you look at the area in full zoom, You can see rocks scattered around the path with a couple of shallow areas. But there is a channel with buoys and lights. Like father like son, Like mother like son, I am a cautious sailor and would not go into the area, I would go around but equally Rachel could go straight and pick up local knowledge path, with current and end up off North Bimini. There she could have been blow up, with distributed bombs, for Bridget to pick up, She could have been slightly off in navigation and been in the channel. And hit by a big cargo vessel and smashed to pieces. Bridget then would find the pieces in the rough area down stream from the crash. If you look at the area on the chart, there are wrecks and outcrops of coral. So Rachel could have had her bottom ripped off like the Titanic, and sunk leaving odd bits floating in the sea. Again Bridget would find bits downstream away from the wreck. These are realistic scenarios.

 

Now I see in the goat, Bridget, he tells the truth but not the whole truth. For all I know, there may be a UFO picking up Rachel, and will let her loose back in Florida on December 17th.

[Benji]

Now I have found a reasonable chart source Chart Link This is a modern chart of the area.

 

Now we can find your position to within 2 metres 6 feet. I was brought up when finding ones position to one mile was very good.

 

Loran in 1996, was very good and could in places like New York City give you a position to 0.1 nmiles. Similarly, the coast of Georgia, you can get 0.1nmile. However, the area we are talking about is on the edge of the coverage. You need access to two pairs of stations (three in total), and in the diagram above you can see, the area is on the edge of three station coverage. There is only one station covering Nassau.

 

Loran sets in general in 1996, gave the position by giving the hyperbolic line numbers eg Blue 14325, Red21000, Green 61550. You then had to look up the position on a chart, to see where these lines cross. Now try to find these lines on the chart link picture. If no mistakes are made, Position fixes in this area can be within 5 miles. Now this did not really effect people because you expected people to be inaccurate, and if somebody said 20miles of a point you look at the chart and assumed they could be miles out. You knew you were in the right placed but assumed that they could be wrong

 

Now if you look at the chart link, you can see that between Nassau and North Bimini, there is a direct path "Northeast Channel" and if you look at the area in full zoom, You can see rocks scattered around the path with a couple of shallow areas. But there is a channel with buoys and lights. Like father like son, Like mother like son, I am a cautious sailor and would not go into the area, I would go around but equally Rachel could go straight and pick up local knowledge path, with current and end up off North Bimini. There she could have been blow up, with distributed bombs, for Bridget to pick up, She could have been slightly off in navigation and been in the channel. And hit by a big cargo vessel and smashed to pieces. Bridget then would find the pieces in the rough area down stream from the crash. If you look at the area on the chart, there are wrecks and outcrops of coral. So Rachel could have had her bottom ripped off like the Titanic, and sunk leaving odd bits floating in the sea. Again Bridget would find bits downstream away from the wreck. These are realistic scenarios.

 

Now I see in the goat, Bridget, he tells the truth but not the whole truth. For all I know, there may be a UFO picking up Rachel, and will let her loose back in Florida on December 17th.

 

 

.................... Great stuff here! I'm still under the belief that Rachel is not dead and the Aries is not sunk. Instead, they are both in Australia waiting for the December deadline. The biggest clue was when Dirk almost told Trevor in the heat of the moment that, after discovering that Trevor was searching for the Aries in a rage sea. He almost said to Trevor, "She's not there". What he said in chapter 7, before catching himself was;

 

"Look, I know damn well what those coordinates are. Twenty miles northeast of Bimini, and it’s the anniversary... Trevor, you can’t... She’s not... Trev, the risk you took is foolish........

 

I believe Rachel took off because of what she knew put her family in danger, I believe she found the hidden compartment aboard the Aries and discovered the papers left by Arnold. A boat switch is a great idea, but would Trevor be guilty of fraud to his insurance company for accepting payment on a boat other than the Atlantis?

[MartyS]

Sorry Benj, I disagree to the following:

 

I believe Rachel took off because of what she knew put her family in danger, I believe she found the hidden compartment aboard the Aries and discovered the papers left by Arnold. A boat switch is a great idea, but would Trevor be guilty of fraud to his insurance company for accepting payment on a boat other than the Atlantis?

Rachel was the person of interest in an investigation by the US Government, as the result of a tip to them by Bridget. If Rachel had found the information Bridget fears was concealed by Arnold, (Information regarding drug smuggling) I am fairly sure she would have attempted to work out a deal for immunity for Dirk and herself. Dirk and Rachel were in consultation with an attorney at the time. Dirk and Frank Tittle discoused this attorney in Chapter 54.

 

I would recommend you look over my next post. I responde to CJs technical critique of my discourse regarding times and distance. I go on to raise other matters you might find interesting.

[MartyS]

Hi CJ,

 

I have read your technical posting. I could challenge some points, but it would only gain maybe ten miles or so. I will concede you have created “Reasonable Doubt,” regarding the length of time, the distances traveled and the conclusions I posted.

 

I also noted, how carefully you constructed your response. The first sentence demonstrates this nicely.

 

Quote:

 

At the time Rachel sailed from Nassau, Ares would have been capable of at least 14 knots.

However, I would like to thank you for pushing me into analyzing the purpose of your post. You did that by defending the possibility that Ares could have done the task.

 

I do not know how the chain of thought formed, but it did. What it did was to push me into considering something, I had accepted, but never really examined. It was integrated into my deductions, without my notice . With this in mind, all appears to drift into place. In all honesty I feel like kicking myself for previously overlooking this.

 

In Chapter 54 is the key piece of proof. This is where Dirk, Jim, Henry and Frank Tittle are all in a conference. This conference took place sometime prior to October 20th, 2006, Let’s leave them there and go on to the following hypothetical scenario.

 

A, Dirk decides to kill his wife by exploding a bomb aboard the Ares.

 

B. During the month of May 1997, the he causes the bomb to explode, sinking the Ares. Rachel dies as the result of the detonation and her body is not recovered.

 

C. Rachel is declared dead in December 1999, approximately two and a half years later.

 

D. Rachel’s will is probated and Trevor inherits the Atlantis.

 

That is the substance of the original case against Dirk, as believed by Sergeant Gonzalez and Bridget. The reason the Sergeant was unable to get an indictment was lack of evidence. That did not restrict Bridget.

 

Now my questions.

 

1. How did Dirk schedule the explosion of the bomb? (Consider the difficulties Bridget, et al, had trying to time the detonation of the bomb aboard the Atlantis. She wanted the bombing to be discovered.) The explosion allegedly occurred a substantial distance from Fort Pierce. It has been established; Dirk is unable, for all practical purposes, to sail on a boat or fly in an airplane. Did Dirk use a cell phone? Did he have someone assisting him? Did he use a timer? Whatever he is alleged to have done, how could he be sure Rachel would be aboard? Would the Ares be underway? Would she be anchored or moored alongside a pier? The alleged planned explosion would appear to have occurred at approximately 02:00. Were other vessels in the immediate vicinity? Keep in mind; it was the Memorial Day Weekend. Why is there a two to three day difference between the scheduled date the Ares dropped off her passengers and the date Trevor commemorates as the date of Rachel’s death? What occurred during that time?

 

2. During the conference we left to go to the hypothetical scenario and my questions, one interesting thing occurred. After Frank Tittle has concluded outlining the completion of the Statute of Limitations. Dirk raised a question as to Trevor’s accountability. Frank goes into a lengthy response regarding Trevor. Frank responded based on what Dirk has told him regarding the reported, alleged sinking of the Ares. Frank also addressed Trevor’s devolved assets. (The Atlantis.) Let’s step away from that and go back to the outlined hypothetical scenario. Rachel left the Atlantis to Trevor in her will. Trevor was seven years of age in May 1997. If Rachel had left him the vessel, and he was part of a conspiracy with Dirk to kill her, then there might be some reason to challenge his ownership of the Atlantis. Unless he so was involved, the bottom line would be, Trevor’s father killed his mother and he inherited the Atlantis. Why has Dirk, on more than one occasion, expressed concern regarding Trevor’s retaining ownership of the Atlantis.

 

3. There is a contradiction between what the Narrator states in The Prologue regarding Trevor’s ownership of the Atlantis and Trevor’s articulated statement he had inherited the Atlantis thru Rachel’s will. Trevor believes Dirk could take Atlantis from him and sell her. Trevor is a minor and subject to his father’s decisions. Rachel could have done so prior to December 1999.(When she was declared dead) Did Trevor ever read Rachel’s will? Dirk did not dispute Trevor’s statement, as to how his ownership was established. Dirk more or less confirms Trevor’s ownership, by telephoning Jim to arrange to conceal the Atlantis. (As a sidebar to this. Afterward Jim demonstrates and acknowledges his limited skills to handle a power vessel approximately one-third the size of the Atlantis. Shane was smart enough to admit his.) Dirk apparently only wanted to stop Trevor from poking around the reported location of the alleged sinking of the Ares, until December 2006.

 

4. The coast guard received a radio broadcast. It concerned a vessel taking water and a location. If a bomb big enough to completely destroy the Ares went off, how was a radio call transmitted? Why such a miniscule amount of flotsam? If it was not large enough to pulverize the Ares, why no mention of an explosion in the radio transmission? (Finally in Chapter 79 Sergeant Gonzalez is thinking about that.) CJ has raised the point that in an emergency the captain of a vessel might well be inaccurate in the description of the location. What emergency?

 

5. Does anyone wish to explain why Trevor might be in danger of having the Atlantis taken away from him legally?

 

6. The key fact I had ignored was simple. Dirk demonstrated it long before he went into hiding the second time. Dirk loves Trevor, as a father should.

 

7. We know very little about Rachel first hand. Where is Rachel? Is she alive? Does Dirk know the answers to these two questions? The Prologue is strictly descriptive, all information in narrative form. It addresses years of activity, with few dates to guide the reader. The key paragraph describing the Ares dropping off her passengers and Rachel sailing is ambiguous at best. All information regarding Rachel is scattered piecemeal throughout seven-nine chapters, so far.

 

8. If the Ares had not been sunk as the result of an explosion in May 1997, where is she?

 

9. Why is Dirk worried about a Statute of Limitations? What offenses did Dirk commit leading to these concerns? Frank Tittle is of the opinion only three charges are still eligible to be prosecuted. One is a violation of Internal Revenue Statutes. Frank’s review of that offense establishes a SoL expiration date of November 23rd, 2006. Frank’s summery of the other two allows a determination of the offense dates. Both expire in December 2006. The one with the seven-year SoL must have been completed in December 1999. The one with the ten-year SoL must have been completed in December 1996. That would be approximately five months prior to the reported sinking of the Ares.

 

10. If Dirk and Rachel entered into a conspiracy, were there any co-conspirators? If any existed, could their actions, extend the Statute of Limitations? Would Dirk be stupid enough to lie to Frank Tittle, his attorney?

 

11. Why have I reached the conclusion the Rachel is almost as cold-hearted a “*ITCH,” as Bridget. (The reader may substitute any letter of the alphabet they chose to replace the “*.”

 

12. Does Dirk still love Rachel? Did he ever?

 

13. Did the charter, which commenced on May 15th, 1997, actually have anything to do with the disappearance of Rachel and the Ares? (I have been wondering about this for a while.)

 

14. Last but not least, “Will CJ ever stop using CLIFFHANGERS?

 

I am sure there are many questions I have not raised. I do not have the answers to many of them. I however will post this “Summery of my Conclusions”

 

Dirk and Rachel entered into a conspiracy to terminate an investigation of Rachel, by the US Government, by falsifying her death at sea. No vessel was sunk as the result of this scheme in May 1997. The Ares assumed the identity of the Atlantis. This occurred in 1997.

 

In May 2006 the results of this conspiracy began to blossom in unexpected directions. Already the fruits have come forth. Murder, Attempted Murder and Piracy are but three of the consequences so far. A conspiracy has been hatched to falsely accuse innocents and a further homicide planned. Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.

 

There is something to look forward to. When the listing for Circumnavigation indicates the story is, “Completed,” the fun may begin. The posts in the Forum may well be filed with questions, challenges and comments. It is something to anticipate. Unfortunately Question # 14 will never have a positive answer. Regrettably the progenitor of these has retreated to a remote location and is in complete denial.

[Benji]

Sorry Benj, I disagree to the following:

 

 

 

Rachel was the person of interest in an investigation by the US Government, as the result of a tip to them by Bridget. If Rachel had found the information Bridget fears was concealed by Arnold, (Information regarding drug smuggling) I am fairly sure she would have attempted to work out a deal for immunity for Dirk and herself. Dirk and Rachel were in consultation with an attorney at the time. Dirk and Frank Tittle discoused this attorney in Chapter 54.

 

I would recommend you look over my next post. I responde to CJs technical critique of my discourse regarding times and distance. I go on to raise other matters you might find interesting.

 

........... That is true, Bridget made Rachel a target by the government into drug smuggling. But what would make a mother abandoned her child for 10 years if she could of just handed over what she found to them? FEAR! If it got out that she turned over the papers and documents her family were at risk from the cartels wrath, she did not trust the government to protect her family. So Dirk and her came up with this plan to stage the 'accident'. Keep in mind Rachel was aware of Bridget trying to buy back the Atlantis, it would make sense that Rachel's discovery would add to her apprehension for Trevor's safety. There is no other explanation for a mother to abandon her son that worshiped her.

[MartyS]

........... That is true, Bridget made Rachel a target by the government into drug smuggling. But what would make a mother abandoned her child for 10 years if she could of just handed over what she found to them? FEAR! If it got out that she turned over the papers and documents her family were at risk from the cartels wrath, she did not trust the government to protect her family. So Dirk and her came up with this plan to stage the 'accident'. Keep in mind Rachel was aware of Bridget trying to buy back the Atlantis, it would make sense that Rachel's discovery would add to her apprehension for Trevor's safety. There is no other explanation for a mother to abandon her son that worshiped her.

Hi Benji,

 

After reading this post, I did a lot of thinking. I can agree with much of your reasoning. I, for some time have believed the boats names were swapped. I thank you for supplying me, a viable reason. I have never considered Rachel finding the papers, Bridget feared were secreted by Arnold on the Ares. I disagree regarding what Bridget told the government regarding what activities Rachel was involved in. I disagree with your conclusions regarding mother love. In a more perfect world, they would reign supreme. Unfortunately, I have learned otherwise. It has been a long time since I took love for granted in examining a situation. Conversely, I have seen love conqueror seemingly insurmountable odds.

 

I have reached an opinion regarding Rachel and dovetailed this new idea into my deductions. What little we know about her is from the Prologue and other comments from various members of the cast. What makes Rachel tick?

 

First and foremost, almost every problem that has landed on Dirk and Trevor is the end result of Rachel’s greed. My read on Dirk is he would have been happy to operate a ships chandlery for the rest of his life. Read again the Prologue. The nautical establishment was making money. It was Rachel’s idea to buy the Ares. She convinced Dirk it would be a good idea. However, in order to do so, they had to make a few creative claims on the loan application. (Lied) Then came the problems with the Ares engines. It is Rachel who devises the plan to solve them and executes it. More money rolls in running a charter service. Rachel and Dirk disagree but, in the end, Rachel had her way. She would run the charters and Dirk would run the chandlery. A second Lagoon is purchased for cash. Somewhere along the way Rachel becomes involved with Bridget in laundering money. Bridget in order to pressure Rachel, to sell back the Ares, passes the word to the US Government, regarding Rachel’s money manipulation. (Bridget told George, Rachel was not involved in the drug smuggling.) Somehow Rachel becomes aware of the investigation. She does not want to go to jail or loose her ill-gotten gains. If she just takes off, that will not stop the investigation. Rachel, with the reluctant assistance of Dirk, devises a plan. Rachel will create a scenario that will lead the authorities to believe she is dead and the Ares lost at sea. Dirk agrees to the plan and it is put into action. With the probable, apparent death, of the principal person of interest, the government investigation would founder. Once Rachel is formally declared dead the investigation would grind to a halt. An investigation of that type generally allows the suspect to continue is operations. If there is no risk of violence it is better to allow the offender to provide additional evidence of the offense. (Sidebar: If the published reports are accurate, ATF apparently did not consider the probability of violence, in their investigation of gun smuggling recently.)

 

Rachel may have discovered what Bridget fears Arnold hid aboard the Ares. She is not stupid. She knows Bridget has been trying to regain possession of the Ares. According to Bridget, the hidden items probably referred to drug smuggling. Rachel does not want those kinds of people coming after her. They do not believe in a Statute of Limitations. Rachel had to safeguard her find and stop Bridget from regaining control of the evidence. Taking a page from one of the E.A. Poe’s stories, she hid the Ares in plain sight, by switching the identities of the Ares and the Atlantis. Rachel reasoned Bridget would cease her attempts and all would settle down. It was not until years later Trevor took up his quest. Bridget learned of it. She was in that circle of acquaintances in the yachting world. She instituted a watch on Trevor to keep her abreast of his search for the Ares. Bridget’s attempts to force Trevor to stop his search for the Ares are chronicled throughout Circumnavigation. Bridget even had Julie available to discuss Trevor and his activities. I am not inferring Julie was working with Bridget. Bridget is crafty and manipulative as hell, as observed by Sergeant Gonzalez to Henry. Look how she has co-opted Lisa and Joel.

 

Rachel takes off for somewhere. The title papers for the Atlantis identify the vessel by identification number. Atlantis would be no problem to sell. Bridget observed a Lagoon 55 docked in Nassau displaying the name Stardancer. I considered the probability that Rachel had renamed Atlantis and took up residence there. While that is possible I consider it unlikely. Rachel was known in the area’s boating community and might have been recognized. Dirk may or may not know where Rachel is hiding. I sincerely doubt he has been in contact with her. Rachel Carlson may be legally dead, but if Dirk had contact with her, in her new identity, IMHO, that could once again start the clock on at least one of the Statute of Limitations.

 

Dirk’s comments to Jim regarding Joel being with Trevor, when he learns the truth about Rachel’s death are interesting. He predicts Joel will be able to help Trevor over the bumps in the road. Dirk does not say he expects Rachel to be able to do so. Why I do not know for sure. Dirk knows Joel did not arrive in Australia with Trevor. He should know that Joel intends to be there shortly after December 17th. That is when he intends to tell Trevor the truth, about what occurred in May 1997. He is unaware of the existence of Shane and the relationship between Trevor and Shane. BTW, if you have not read my posting in the “Post Poll Shane,” I would recommend you do so. IMHO, once Shane learns Trev’s hunt for Rachel’s body has ended, there might very well be a change in Shane’s disclosures to Trevor. Enough said about Trevor and his escapades and problems. Let me redirect myself to Rachel.

 

I would describe Rachel as a driven, self-centered, conniving, individual. I do not think there is much difference between her and Bridget. Agreed, Bridget has more experience under her belt and has certainly demonstrated the depths she will sink to, to gain her objective. I think of Rachel as a “Wanabe Bridget. Whether Rachel can, “Walk the Walk,” remains to be seen. I believe that Dirk has pondered deeply his relationship with Rachel. Based on his comments to Jim, regarding Joel being with Trevor when he learns the truth, may say it all. It is very probable that Dirk, does not believe Rachel will be any assistance to Trevor, even if she were immediately available. Conversely, Dirk may still have feelings for Rachel and cannot be sure she would be available.

 

Trevor is in Australia. Dirk’s only contact with Trevor is via Henry thru Joel. Even that is limited by the lack of a cell phone in Trev’s possession, so far. (Does the cell phone Joel is using have Caller ID? Would a satellite phone number appear and be retained, on a cell phone that did have Caller ID?) Trevor arrived in Carnarvon accidentally. He does not know any contact information for his mother’s and his relatives. Trevor deliberately withheld from Greg and Craig the fact he had family in Australia. Martin Blake was told, as was Shane. Trevor has no way to directly contact Dirk to get contact info. Last, but not least, would Dirk, jeopardize himself by attempting to contact anyone in Australia, prior to December 17th. Henry would have informed Dirk of Trevor’s arrival and the pirates already. Dirk should be smart to know his getting involved, could create problems.

 

Marty

[rknapp]

You know, something I learned last night while having dinner on a certain Caribbean island whose west end was 70 miles from Ft. Lauderdale got me thinking. I was with my parents and a travel agent who knows the Bahamas very well, having arranged yachting excursions to the islands for decades. He said only complete morons go boating in the Bahamian islands at night. Why? Coral reefs are easy to get stuck on. That in itself is nothing noteworthy, but what IS noteworthy is the Bahamian equivalent of the US Coast Guard is comprised almost entirely of volunteers. They will not rescue you at night. They will wait until morning, then come get you. His story was of a boater in his group venturing off at night in a convertible fisher, despite warnings from other boaters. They found him the next morning stuck on the reef. Worse, they found blood in the water and on the hull. Luckily, that was just from him walking around on the reef, trying to free his yacht. Luckier still, sharks didn't come after his stupid ass.

 

So, you will almost never find boats out in Bahamian waters at night, and may day calls will go unheeded. Rachel could have picked any night to perform some scheme and expect not to be rescued until morning.

 

I also will question what CJ calls "calm waters". The open seas surrounding Grand Bahama this morning were about 1-2 feet, with some areas of the Florida Straight being almost 3 feet... I was in the Straight in the mid 90s (95 was the last time my old passport was stamped in the Bahamas, so don't let the wiley old goat fool you into placing blame on me) and we hit 25 footers. Given that, I'd call 3 feet calm. I'd even say that in those conditions, you'd be fine making the journey from Port Lucaya to the St. Lucie Inlet sitting at the back of a Sea Ray Sundancer 420. Hell, you'd even have a blast at about 20 knots. In these calm waters, the gulf stream was about 3 knots to the northwest... kinda the same direction as anyone going from Port Lucaya to Jensen Beach.

 

Of course, I am not at liberty to say precisely how I know these facts... there are wiley goats about, dontcha know.

 

 

 

Just food for thought...

[C James]

Trevor is in Australia. Dirk’s only contact with Trevor is via Henry thru Joel. Even that is limited by the lack of a cell phone in Trev’s possession, so far. (Does the cell phone Joel is using have Caller ID? Would a satellite phone number appear and be retained, on a cell phone that did have Caller ID?) Trevor arrived in Carnarvon accidentally. He does not know any contact information for his mother’s and his relatives. Trevor deliberately withheld from Greg and Craig the fact he had family in Australia. Martin Blake was told, as was Shane. Trevor has no way to directly contact Dirk to get contact info. Last, but not least, would Dirk, jeopardize himself by attempting to contact anyone in Australia, prior to December 17th. Henry would have informed Dirk of Trevor’s arrival and the pirates already. Dirk should be smart to know his getting involved, could create problems.

 

Marty

 

I can answer a bit about the sat pones and cells. Sat phones are usually dual mode, so can use cell signals when available. Where Trevor and Shane are, they aren't, so it's in sat mode.

 

In the mid 2000's, international calls often came in on caller IDs as "Unavailable", including for cell phones. So, I'd say there is a liklyhood that the caller ID from a sat phone in Australia would come in that way too. Also, you can block caller ID on many phone accounts, so your call does no show on an ID unless you're calling a toll-free number. (those you can't block, because they are paying for the call).

 

 

 

You know, something I learned last night while having dinner on a certain Caribbean island whose west end was 70 miles from Ft. Lauderdale got me thinking. I was with my parents and a travel agent who knows the Bahamas very well, having arranged yachting excursions to the islands for decades. He said only complete morons go boating in the Bahamian islands at night. Why? Coral reefs are easy to get stuck on. That in itself is nothing noteworthy, but what IS noteworthy is the Bahamian equivalent of the US Coast Guard is comprised almost entirely of volunteers. They will not rescue you at night. They will wait until morning, then come get you. His story was of a boater in his group venturing off at night in a convertible fisher, despite warnings from other boaters. They found him the next morning stuck on the reef. Worse, they found blood in the water and on the hull. Luckily, that was just from him walking around on the reef, trying to free his yacht. Luckier still, sharks didn't come after his stupid ass.

I can confirm that this is true: A mayday in the Bahamas likely won't get much response until daylight, and local boaters know it. The first responders would more likley be private boats, such as, as we saw, Bridget, who was among the first on the scene.

 

There are safe corridors in the bahamas at night, such as wide, deep straits between SOME of the islands. The direct route from Nassau to 20 miles NE of Bimini is not amongst them. With GPS you might be okay, but Ares had LORAN, which isn't as accurate.

 

I also will question what CJ calls "calm waters". The open seas surrounding Grand Bahama this morning were about 1-2 feet, with some areas of the Florida Straight being almost 3 feet... I was in the Straight in the mid 90s (95 was the last time my old passport was stamped in the Bahamas, so don't let the wiley old goat fool you into placing blame on me) and we hit 25 footers. Given that, I'd call 3 feet calm. I'd even say that in those conditions, you'd be fine making the journey from Port Lucaya to the St. Lucie Inlet sitting at the back of a Sea Ray Sundancer 420. Hell, you'd even have a blast at about 20 knots. In these calm waters, the gulf stream was about 3 knots to the northwest... kinda the same direction as anyone going from Port Lucaya to Jensen Beach.

Calm waters... I'd call that two feet or less. So, breezes of 6 knots of less.

 

And HRMM!!! Please, everyone, read the above closely. A Sea Ray Sundancer, in the Florda Straits, making runs to the Bahamas. Sound familiar?? Please bear in mind that Sea Witch (Bridget's boat of many names) is a Sea Ray sundancer !!! And she uses it to make runs to the Bahamas and back. And, furthermore, she does not always get her passport stamped. In fact, that's commomn enough in that era even for those going through customs in the Bahamas: they did not always stamp your passport, and note the wording above; The last time his passport was stamped in the Bahamas. He does not say that was the last time he was there.

 

A further issue here; Rknapp's name is Rob. And where is Sea Witch kept? Rob's Marine! Now, who exactly is this Rob who apparently owns it in partnership with Bridget?!?!?!?

 

So, here we have someone, who has an expert knowledge of local conditions (including things related to the coast guard and Ares disappearance!!!), in the area often, in the same kind of boat Bridget uses, which is operating out of Rob's marine. I think somebody should let Gonzalez know; we have a new suspect!!!

 

Hrmmm.. Very suspicious... And what, exactly, is he up to on that particular island? (Grand Bahama). Trevor visited there early on.. this puts Rob about 30 mile from the disappearance site. What's he there looking for? Bridget was toying with the idea of trying to find Ares herself.. and thanks to finding the debris, she'd have the best idea where Ares went down.

 

Was he there in 1997??? Did he sink Ares??? What nefarious things is he doing there now? Did he go there to meet with Sanchez???

 

Food for thought indeed!

[MartyS]

Hi Benji,

 

I have a suggestion. Why don’t we kick around some of the aspects of Rachel’s plan and see if we can come up with the answers, before CJ posts the chapters revealing them.

 

Did you notice and consider his responses to my postings on time and distance. He went all out to prove my calculations were defective. The question I keep asking myself is, why? Normally CJ sits back and basically say’s, “I cannot comment on this or that.” Not this time. He created a posting, which rejected just about every conclusion I posted. He did a damn good job of it also.

 

It took me the better part of a day to research, find the supporting visual inserts, type, edit and proofread, before it was ready for posting. I am retired, with some medical problems. I have all the time I need to spend on something like I did. CJ works, travels and has other responsibilities to use up his time. Therefore, I believe there must be a very good reason he did so. Although CJ qualified his response by saying it was a technical one, I wonder. Maybe you have some thoughts on this, you would like to share.

 

Anyway, let me return to the primary purpose of this post. My interpretation of our combined posts follows. I am keeping it simple and barebones.

 

Rachel needs to disappear permanently. (For whatever reason.) She has discovered the items hidden on the Ares. Rachel and Dirk conspire to fake the sinking of the Ares and her disappearance as a result. Rachel wants to keep the Ares out of Bridget’s control and retain control of the items she found.

 

Here is what I believe Rachel did.

 

Rachel knew she had to create a believable sinking. To just disappear would not cut it. Rachel wanted to keep it simple. She planned for the Mayday radio broadcast. The broadcast was to a female voice, disjointed and brief enough to defeat radio direction finders. She planned to leave identifiable debris in the area indicated in the broadcast.

 

Unfortunately Bridget discovered the flotsam and removed it. The authorities were left with only the radio transmission to consider. However, with only that, Rachel was declared dead in December 1999.

 

The Ares arrived in Nassau on schedule, Thursday, May 25th., She dropped off the passengers of the May 15th Charter. This places Rachel and the Ares in Nassau on that date. If Rachel was not aboard, I believe it could have created problems after the sinking was reported.

 

The tasks that need to be resolved:

 

Rachel and the Ares are in Nassau. The Atlantis is docked in Fort Pierce. The boats need to be swapped. The debris needs to be placed in the reported sinking area. The Atlantis needs to disappear.

 

Last, but not least, Rachel needs to be in Nassau on May 27th, prior to 19:50 hours. In the Prologue, the Narrator states Rachel sailed from Nassau at sunset. The Narrator does not state a time or date. Nor does he identify the vessel. If you have been following my posts, you know I determined the time/date through research. Keep in mind, there is at least 2 days between the arrival of the Ares on the 25th and Rachel's sailing on either the 27th or the 28th. It is also the Memorial Day weekend.

 

Well Benji, the problems Rachel needs to resolve, are set forth. I have some ideas as to what she did to complete her planned disappearance. If you are willing to give me your thoughts, I would appreciate it. Maybe we can beat CJ to the draw. If you decide to decline my request, please inform me.

 

Marty

Edited June 20, 2011 by MartyS

[MartyS]

Please CJ,

 

Rknapp was only 10 years of age in 1997.

[C James]

Please CJ,

 

Rknapp was only 10 years of age in 1997.

 

But... that proves nothing! He could still have been involved in 2006, or, maybe 1997 as well; he might have just started young. :chris:

 

BTW, the wait for 80 is about over. It should be online in under 2 hours.

CJ

[wildone]

Okay, I have a question, I waited till now to ask it

 

So Shane seems to be writing the story of Trevor's entire journey. They have gone over everything to date so far.

 

Since CJ is telling us the story, could that mean that he actually stole Shane's story from his yet unpublished book

 

Me thinks the goat may be dabbling in plagiarism

 

I think we need a impartial moderator to adjudicate on this charge. Anyone want to name an impartial moderator?

 

Just saying.......