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Is there going to be another Korean War?


W_L

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Was looking at this for the last few days and thought I'd chime in on my blog. Kim jung un is reeling for a confrontation: testing nukes, tearing the armistice, and now threatening to cut diplomatic contact.

 

If war was to be fought against the North Korean military using their nuclear arms, should and can the US honor its 60 year old scenario of nuclear retaliation? What about the impact to the Pacific Rim?

 

Also what many don't see is the thousand pound elephant in the room, China, remains quiet. The Chinese has much to lose if a Nuclear regional war were to break near China's strategic reserves of Coal in Northeastern China. Currently, a large proportion of Chinese industrial power consumption is based off coal plants. If the region is irradiated, imagine what would happen to industrial capacity. China also has one other trump card in its hands, Kim Jung Il older son and former heir apparent to North Korea, who left his country after his younger brother's ascension. In the annals of history, including Chinese political history on foreign dynastic claims, fratricide for power is very common as a foreign policy move for China. (Not to say China might attempt that, but I do wonder why they would accept the older brother into the country. :o )

 

Beyond the potential cloak and dagger world of intrigue, we may see an end to the old Korean Standoff finally after 60 years, one way or another.

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It has always been a dangerous world.  The 20th Century saw the worst toll on humanity and the environment from war of any in human history.   The 21st Century may eclipse that toll.

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The Koreans have fallen into a pattern.  They throw a fit, act like brats, blow up something and extort aid.

 

When their neighbors send them a check, the Great Leader disappears in his bunker for a while with some Viagra and under-aged girls and comes back out when the money runs out.

 

The real question is who will throw him some money this time. South Korea and Japan could but they are both very tired of the Great Leader's shit. Obama could but it would damage him politically (weak spend-thrift).. Russia is in no position to. Even the Chinese are distancing themselves from their pet monster.

 

Going nuclear would be suicidal for the NKs. They are popping devices that yield in the low kilotons. We can deliver up to 25 megatons. Even so- the DOD has contingency plans for using TAC nukes (low yield nukes) and precision munitions to barbecue large parts of NKs military, their leadership and most anything dangerous they have.without sending massive waves of fallout to China.

 

NK is on Washington and everyone else s shit list because they already have mass stocks of chemical and bio weapons.  What they do with those weapons could invite massive retaliation that could render South Korea an island.

 

It could turn into a really ugly, genocidal war. Most ugly to NK as their 1960s military gets taken apart in detail by modern equipment of the South and their American allies.

 

I don't know. It just might be time for this war. The North can't go on like it is. They are so backward that they don't even know how f*cked they are.

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