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Recent extreme weather and Climate Change - update


Zombie

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After two months of incessant and record breaking rainfall Britain is now waterlogged. Literally. All ground aquifers are not just full up, water is being forced out of the ground under pressure at the same time as rain continues to fall from the sky.

 

We're famous for talking about the weather in casual conversation but it has been headline news now for weeks. Every day. Things are now so serious, and in so many parts of the country, that the government has cleared other business to focus on the domestic crisis.

 

Even if it stopped raining tomorrow, flooding from ground aquifers will continue for months. But it isn't going to stop raining. We are stuck in a cycle of vicious jet-stream-driven Atlantic storms that shows no sign of changing anytime soon. Another severe storm is going to hit later this week.

 

Normally the jet stream takes this weather much further north where it doesn't matter. It's the same jet-stream that has been causing the terrible winter in the Northern United States. Even Americans have started complaining about their weather - on this site! And they've been doing this for weeks! This is anti-American. It's unconstitutional! :lol:

 

Britain invented weather. Well, we invented weather forecasting :) As an island nation we've always needed to know what's coming our way. We spend a huge amount on weather forecasting. This is done by the Met Office, a government dept since 1854 and closely linked to the MoD. These are not amateurs. They train many forecasters from around the world. They have the most qualified and experienced climate scientists and two IBM supercomputers for global climate modelling. The "butterfly effect" means you have to model the whole planet if you are to be a serious and effective weather forecaster.

 

And this is what they said today:

 

"This series of winter storms has been exceptional in its duration, and has led to the wettest December to January period in the UK since records began. Heavy rains combined with strong winds and high waves led to widespread flooding and coastal damage, causing significant disruption to individuals, businesses and infrastructure.

 

The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA. These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream, over the Pacific Ocean and North America.

 

The major changes in the Pacific jet stream were driven by a persistent pattern of enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region. The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to exceptional wind patterns in the stratosphere with a very intense polar vortex.

 

...recent studies have suggested an increase in the intensity of Atlantic storms that take a more southerly track, typical of this winter's extreme weather. There is also an increasing body of evidence that shows that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, and that the rate of increase is consistent with what is expected from the fundamental physics of a warming world. "

 

The full report is here. If you have a view on global warming and climate change you should read it :)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/2/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_SLR_20140211.pdf

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Wow! I say blame it on Jacob Zuma. :P Seriously though, the weather will be the death of our species. No. But we caused this. Our forefathers had mega time to sort this out. But they ignored our complaints. They ban and jail members of Green Peace, they simply raped the earth's resources and by implementing draconian production and mechanical methods that produce carbon monoxide or is that dioxide? partially destroyed our ozone layer. They call it progress. Green house gasses seen as progress. !!!!!!!! I say round up all these monsters, leaders of countries who do not comply, leaders of industry who rape our planet, put them against a wall and shoot them before they kill us all. Yes I am angry! How many millions of cars are there on this earth? Millions of cars that release emmisions. Why don't they develop and replace petrol cars with electric cars? I'll tell you why - because the oil companies have got us by the balls and shieks get richer and texan oil magnates laugh at the future of our planet because they won't see the planet self destruct, their kids will, so leave the problem for future generations to sort out. In the meantime I want your money all of your money you poor suckers. Selfish bastards. Hence climate change. Where will our future as a species be in three or four hundred years time? Living under gigantic domes, and half of every species dead?!!! Truly, blame ourselves. We did this to our home. No one else. Just us.

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More unusual rain and cold in one place means warmer and dryer than normal conditions in another and that is exactly what we have.  Alaska is experiencing the warmest winter in years....

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Two interesting things:firstly these are the worst storms since records began, yet the damage is actually less (in financial terms) than the floods in 2007 and 2000. So I think the critics is actually unfair on the environment agency who are controlling less property damage with much more water. Second interesting thing is that today the Thames measured it's highest cubic water flow ever.

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Also, let's not forget that these floods are in fact our fault; because of gay marriage. That's what one UKIP councillor stated anyway.... no joke :)

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these are the worst storms since records began, yet the damage is actually less (in financial terms) than the floods in 2007 and 2000...

 

It's going to be a long time before we know the full costs

- to businesses (transport disruption etc)

- to individuals collectively

- to the Treasury (lost taxes)

- to the public purse (rebuilding infrastructure like the West Coast Line into Cornwall, the main line into London from Reading which is going to have to be closed for weeks / months so it can be rebuilt with new signalling at a higher level than the overflowing aquifer)

And meanwhile another vicious storm is due to hit tomorrow so future damage is a total unknown as is... when is it all going to end? No sign of the jet stream flipping back to where it should be :(

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It's going to be a long time before we know the full costs

- to businesses (transport disruption etc)

- to individuals collectively

- to the Treasury (lost taxes)

- to the public purse (rebuilding infrastructure like the West Coast Line into Cornwall, the main line into London from Reading which is going to have to be closed for weeks / months so it can be rebuilt with new signalling at a higher level than the overflowing aquifer)

And meanwhile another vicious storm is due to hit tomorrow so future damage is a total unknown as is... when is it all going to end? No sign of the jet stream flipping back to where it should be :(

Still, the insurance industry's PDC (potential damage cost) estimate is considerably lower than 2000 and 2007, despite there being more water and more to come. The PDC figure has been shown to be about 90% accurate historically, so there is some wiggle room, but at the moment I would be inclined to say that although things are bad, the environment agency doesn't deserve the bad press they are getting.

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Still, the insurance industry's PDC (potential damage cost) estimate is considerably lower than 2000 and 2007, despite there being more water and more to come. The PDC figure has been shown to be about 90% accurate historically, so there is some wiggle room, but at the moment I would be inclined to say that although things are bad, the environment agency doesn't deserve the bad press they are getting.

 

Insurance figures are not the whole picture. The don't pay for national infrastructure repairs (rail lines, power distribution), economic disruption, business losses, uninsured and uninsurable losses - and there is much more of this now as extreme weather events are becoming so much more common - and losses by farmers and food producers. It's just too early to make comparisons. As for the EA... well, farmers in the Somerset Levels who've lived there for generations don't take such a kind view as you do - listen to Farming Today R4 6.30am Saturdays

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It's official - Britain's had the wettest winter on record. And still another week of rainfall to go...

 

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In itself this proves nothing. But taken together with the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and new weather records across the world it is a warning that we can no longer rely on having predictable local climates delivering the same old weather we've come to expect.

 

We now have to expect the unexpected. We need to quit moaning when extreme weather strikes and we're going to have to invest significant new money in making national and local infrastructure much more resilient as well as upgrading emergency services to be ready for the next time...

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