Had Louis looked towards Lincoln, not as a 'secure' outpost of his control, and seen it for what it was, understaffed and manned, he may have survived the loss of his resupply fleet. And able to weather the storm, hopefully, until the next supply fleet.
I'm reminded of the following proverb, which, while written much later, applies here...
For want of a nail the shoe was lost;
for want of a shoe, the horse was lost;
and for want of a horse the rider was lost,
being overtaken and slain by the enemy,
all for want of care about a horse-shoe nail
And one might say, for the want of that horse-shoe nail, a kingdom was lost
For want of a nail - Wikipedia
It will be a significant moment for Kalen, having been recognized for his rebuilding of Lincoln, a reward for his actions. What title will come of this?
We still have the Scotts, quietly biding their time. What encouragement do they make of Louis's defeat? Do they sense an opportunity to test the young King?