The Calfornia Dream Is Fizzling Out

[methodwriter85]

I ran across this article. I thought it was pretty interesting, and actually pretty revelant to the CAP saga.

 

The California Dream Is Fizzling Out

 

Thematically, the use of California as the place to pursue new dreams and seek big riches has been pretty well-explored in the CAP saga. JP and his family moved there in the 1960's at the mid-century boom. Stefan used the booming development of Alameda County to his advantage in the 1970's. And the CAP family was well-poised to take advantage of the riches developed in the Silicon Valley in the 1980's and 1990's. But with this next decade, it seems like most of the growth is going to be gilded- mainly the McMansion real estate boom of Orange County and Inland Empire that goes bust in a spectacular way, leaving many people with houses they can't afford and foreclosures galore. It's not that Calfornia has suddenly jumped off a cliff, but it seems like the place has lost the luster that drew so many people to it during the 20th century, and it's days of being the place of miraculous growth and opportunity seems to have ended.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the California economic slump might mean for the CAP saga. I mean, they're incredibly rich so it's not like they're going to worry about losing jobs or houses, but it's still going to affect them in some way. I know that the housing foreclosure crisis will defnitely effect Stefan's real estate holdings. Stefan being Stefan, I wonder if he's going to start looking at investing in places like Austin, Texas to try and catch the next "wave", if you will. I think Stefan might be astute enough to realize that states like North Carolina and Texas are going to be the dominant economic growth opportunities for this decade. And it was interesting how JP and Stefan realized that Silicon Valley is becoming too expensive for average people to live, which was part of their justification for getting some of their tech branches to relocate to Claremont. .

Edited July 1, 2011 by methodwriter85

[methodwriter85]

I honestly thought I'd get vehement rebuttals from Blue, PrivateTim, Matt K, and possibly Tommy B about this article. Kinda disapointed- I was certaintly expecting Timmy to launch a defense about the ample prospects of California and how this article is total bull.

[Mark Arbour]

I honestly thought I'd get vehement rebuttals from Blue, PrivateTim, Matt K, and possibly Tommy B about this article. Kinda disapointed- I was certaintly expecting Timmy to launch a defense about the ample prospects of California and how this article is total bull.

 

I'm not sure that shit-disturbing is an admirable trait, Jeremy.

 

Most of us Californians (either current or past) are used to this drivel. There are always horror stories about how the state has lost its luster, or that its going to go bankrupt (well, that may be true ), or fall into the Pacific Ocean. The truth of the matter is that it has a volatile economy, and when things are good, they're real good. When they're bad, they're real bad.

 

It's also a bellweather. When California real estate (in the coastal cities, not the inland areas like Stockton) starts to recover, you'll know we're on our way out of the housing recession. Just my opinion.

 

 

 

[methodwriter85]

I'm not sure that shit-disturbing is an admirable trait, Jeremy.

It's not shit-disturbing, Mark. I'm merely posting about a subject that Tim has previously expressed a strong passion about, in hopes of engaging one of the lively discussions that he's become known for.

 

Most of us Californians (either current or past) are used to this drivel. There are always horror stories about how the state has lost its luster, or that its going to go bankrupt (well, that may be true ), or fall into the Pacific Ocean. The truth of the matter is that it has a volatile economy, and when things are good, they're real good. When they're bad, they're real bad.

 

It's also a bellweather. When California real estate (in the coastal cities, not the inland areas like Stockton) starts to recover, you'll know we're on our way out of the housing recession. Just my opinion.

 

It does seem like for you guys to really recover, there's got to be a handle put on the housing costs so that the middle class can actually afford houses there.

 

Right now, it looks like Texas is kinda poised to take over, with it's low-cost of living, thriving job sector, and great public school system.

Edited June 3, 2012 by methodwriter85

[Mark Arbour]

It's not shit-disturbing, Mark. I'm merely posting about subject that Tim has previously expressed a strong passion about, in hopes of engaging one of the lively discussions that he's become known for.

 

 

 

It does seem like for you guys to really recover, there's got to be a handle put on the housing costs so that the middle class can actually afford houses there.

 

Right now, it looks like Texas is kinda poised to take over, with it's low-cost of living, thriving job sector, and great public school system.

 

Texas? Really? I'm not seeing it.

 

For as long as I can remember, housing costs in California have been high. Somehow, people manage and thrive despite the chunk of their income mortgages or rent take. I've always attributed that to the higher wages people earn, but I'm not sure if that's still the case or not.

[methodwriter85]

The impression I got was that, at the height of the boom, people were using some incredibly creative financing.

[Daddydavek]

Jeremy look at this link: http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Texas-drought-lowered-lake-levels-by-4-in-June-1461421.phphttp:/www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Texas-drought-lowered-lake-levels-by-4-in-June-1461421.php

 

Texas is facing an epic drought, so it is not the land of "milk and honey" either, although it has weathered the Great Recession better than most states.