This is a balancing act that Senator Obama must consider carefully in the months leading up to the Democratic National Convention. On one hand, Jim Webb is as close to a guaranteed Democratic pickup in the Senate as you can get. On the other hand, unless the Democrats can get to 60 seats in November, increasing the Senate majority isn't worth a whole lot if they don't win the White House as well.

I share your admiration and enthusiasm for Webb, but I don't believe that his very strong appeal in Virginia translates well nationally -- outside of the political junkies and activists, he is not very well known outside of VA.

I think Obama's VP pick will largely come down to how quickly the Democratic party base settles down and unifies behind him. While I have a hard time seeing him offering Clinton the VP slot (and I also have a hard time seeing her accept it), if large numbers of her supporters remain on the fence I think he'll pick Governor Sebelius. She's popular in a red state, she's great at working across the party aisle, and she's strong on women's rights. I think she does better across the board than Gov. Napolitano of Arizona or Sen. McCaskill of Missouri when it comes to both trying to unify the party and challenging traditional Republican territory, although Missouri's a pretty tempting battleground state as well. The problem there is, how do you replace McCaskill in the Senate?

If Hillary Clinton is able to motivate her base, and more importantly if Obama is able to inspire them to join him, then there are many more possibilities. Two choices that spring to mind immediately for me would be Governor Rendell in Pennsylvania (a strong Hillary supporter who is popular with working class voters) and Senator "this is bull****, this is malarkey" Biden. As much as I like him, I don't know if Bill Richardson adds enough to the ticket to be chosen...but then again, he could make it much easier to flip Colorado, New Mexico, and maybe Nevada. An interesting dark horse candidate would be Governor Strickland in Ohio...it looks next to impossible for the Republicans to win the election this year without holding on to Ohio (it's going to take a couple more months of bad polls before I believe that Michigan is in danger of flipping). In addition, Strickland was another prominent Hillary supporter. I don't know how popular he is in Ohio, or if his choice would make the Democratic chances there any stronger...but the more the Republicans are forced to spend in Ohio, the less they will have to defend states like IA, VA, CO, NM, NV...maybe even NC and ND.

Then again, it's only the first week in June...in a couple of weeks, who knows what the picture will look like?

Rob

This is a balancing act that Senator Obama must consider carefully in the months leading up to the Democratic National Convention. On one hand, Jim Webb is as close to a guaranteed Democratic pickup in the Senate as you can get. On the other hand, unless the Democrats can get to 60 seats in November, increasing the Senate majority isn't worth a whole lot if they don't win the White House as well.

 

I share your admiration and enthusiasm for Webb, but I don't believe that his very strong appeal in Virginia translates well nationally -- outside of the political junkies and activists, he is not very well known outside of VA.

 

I think Obama's VP pick will largely come down to how quickly the Democratic party base settles down and unifies behind him. While I have a hard time seeing him offering Clinton the VP slot (and I also have a hard time seeing her accept it), if large numbers of her supporters remain on the fence I think he'll pick Governor Sebelius. She's popular in a red state, she's great at working across the party aisle, and she's strong on women's rights. I think she does better across the board than Gov. Napolitano of Arizona or Sen. McCaskill of Missouri when it comes to both trying to unify the party and challenging traditional Republican territory, although Missouri's a pretty tempting battleground state as well. The problem there is, how do you replace McCaskill in the Senate?

 

If Hillary Clinton is able to motivate her base, and more importantly if Obama is able to inspire them to join him, then there are many more possibilities. Two choices that spring to mind immediately for me would be Governor Rendell in Pennsylvania (a strong Hillary supporter who is popular with working class voters) and Senator "this is bull****, this is malarkey" Biden. As much as I like him, I don't know if Bill Richardson adds enough to the ticket to be chosen...but then again, he could make it much easier to flip Colorado, New Mexico, and maybe Nevada. An interesting dark horse candidate would be Governor Strickland in Ohio...it looks next to impossible for the Republicans to win the election this year without holding on to Ohio (it's going to take a couple more months of bad polls before I believe that Michigan is in danger of flipping). In addition, Strickland was another prominent Hillary supporter. I don't know how popular he is in Ohio, or if his choice would make the Democratic chances there any stronger...but the more the Republicans are forced to spend in Ohio, the less they will have to defend states like IA, VA, CO, NM, NV...maybe even NC and ND.

 

Then again, it's only the first week in June...in a couple of weeks, who knows what the picture will look like?

 

Rob

In case Obama does pick Webb, and they go on to win, the dems don't have to worry about losing the seat to the repubs. Tim Kaine gets to pick Webb's replacement. Also, John Warner is finally retiring and checking into a nursing home, and Mark Warner is running against Jim Gilmore. There's no freaking way Warner loses to Gilmore. He was a popular governator in Virginia, and people are sick and tired of the crap that the republicans bring with them. It's no coincidence that since Gilmore left office, Virginia has elected two democrat governors in a row. Then they gave George Allen the boot for Webb, and the first thing Webb did was get in George Bush's face about Iraq.

The thing is, Obama needs a strong military guy. He doesn't have any military experience of his own, just like Bush. Bush had Cheney, who also had no real experience, and look at the mess they've made. This is an opportunity for the democrats to shut the republicans up about being stronger on defense than they are, and I also think that Webb would be a great choice to run for President when Obama's time as president is over.

If Obama picks Richards, it's going to be a huge mistake. He'll be a good cabinet member, but I can't see him exciting many Hillary supporters that are still mad enough to vote for the mummy McCain. Personally, I don't know enough about Rendell to form an opinion about him, but I know that I think Biden would be a big fat flop. I guess that in the end, it's almost certain that Obama will beat McCain, but the right running mate could be the difference between a squeeker and a conclusive victory.

Meh. I still intend to put on a blindfold, spin around three times, and then randomly touch the voting screen. Neither apparent candidate seems worse than the other to me Nick. In reality I'll probably vote Democratic because that's basically what I am. At this point the only thing that would make me vote for McCain is if Obama selects Clinton as his running mate. So I say bring on Webb. He's certainly more qualified for the job than any of the other names I've seen bandied about.